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Top American Stocks For 2011: iShares Silver (SLV)

By Gene Arensberg

 

 
"2011 will be the year that silver shines," says metals and  mining specialist Gene Arensberg. In his Got Gold Report, a specialty service from The Gold Newsletter, he says, “We believe that the metal-backed exchange traded fund iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) is a safe and convenient way for most investors to gain exposure to the silver market.
 
"When the general public becomes fully involved in gold, silver shines brightly … for a time.  At least it did so in the last public rush into gold which peaked about 30 years ago.
 
"SLV tracks the spot price of silver, less accumulated fees capped at 0.5% per annum.
 
Since the exchange traded fund’s inception in April, 2006, the trust has accumulated over 300 million ounces of silver.
 
"That is about 9,500 metric tonnes of bar silver held in ultra-secure soccer field sized vaults by a custodian in London. In December, 2010, the SLV silver stash was worth about $5.3 billion.
 
 
“Silver fell out of popularity until just recently, but we see that changing now. For more than 20 years, from 1980 to about 2003, investors all over the globe were conditioned by a weak silver price and not much joy of ownership.
 
"'Who cares?’ sums up the public attitude before this bull market for silver began in 2003.  Even now that attitude prevails among the same investing establishment that has grudgingly accepted gold as an investment class.
 
“During that long bear market for silver, government dishoarding of excess silver metal, metal left over from when governments actually had silver in their coinage, acted as a cap to the price.
 
"That excess supply from o?cial sources is all gone now, but the e?ects of the artificial over-supply are only just now retreating.
 
“Silver stayed so low-priced for so long it made the second most popular precious metal di?cult to mine profitably. Because of that, annual production of silver has not kept pace with increasing industry and investment demand.
 
"A factoid that some will find di?cult to believe is that because prices for actual physical silver metal have been so cheap for so long, and because global industry consumes more silver each year than miners are able to produce, there is actually considerably less silver metal in existence than there is gold.
 
“Gold recently rose to new all-time nominal highs above $1,200 the ounce, but its sister precious metal has lagged so far. In fact it hasn’t even gotten to half of where it did in the last bull market peak in January, 1980.
 
"Silver reached about $50 an ounce briefly then, but so far this cycle has yet to beat its May 2008 $21.44 pinnacle.  That is with gold having bested its 1980 high of $850 by more than $350 an ounce. As such, we believe that silver has some serious catching up to do.
 
"“What is so enticing about the silver story is that it currently takes about 64 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. That is called the gold:silver ratio. During the bull market for precious metals thirty years ago the ratio fell to about 16:1 or 16 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold.
 
"If gold simply stood still at $1,100 an ounce and the ratio were to fall to 1980 levels, silver would climb to about $69 an ounce. That suggests achievable upside for silver and SLV of nearly 4X from today.
 
“But wait, there’s more. Consider that compared to period of the last bull rush for precious metals the world has about 50% more people in it. Governments have inflated their fiat currencies since then by a factor of 10.
 
"World inventories of actual physical silver metal for investment have actually fallen to less than half of the amount that was available in 1980.
 
"Recently the government of China re-legalized the ownership of precious metals for its 1.3 billion people and is actually encouraging its citizens to accumulate them.
 
"The number of people of a?uence and means in the developing countries like Brazil, Russia, China and India has increased exponentially in the last thirty years.
 
“So, we see the currently unloved silver market as ripe for an investment renaissance of epic proportions. Think about it.
 
"Today versus 1980 we have globally 50% more people who will be using 1,000% more dollars, yen, euro, pounds sterling, yuan, etc., to chase less than half as much silver metal in a world where anyone can buy a silver ETF with just a mouse click from their study, even in their underwear.
 
“Isn’t that a potent recipe for silver? We think 2011 could very well be the year that a global popular rush, a veritable tsunami of liquidity into silver gets underway in earnest as more and more people discover just how little of it remains above ground for investment.  Our favorite way to participate is SLV.”
 
 

Top American Stocks For 2011: AECOM (ACM)

By Georey Seiler

 

"Our top pick for 2011 is engineering and construction (E&C) firm AECOM Technology (NYSE:ACM)," says Geo?rey Seiler.

 

In his BullMarket.com the advisor explains, "AECOM, unlike some better-known E&C names, o?ers a relatively low-risk business model. It performs no construction work at all and thus has none of the lump-sum, fixed-rate contracts that other companies might sign.

 

"The Los Angeles-based company focuses on a broad range of services that includes planning, design, environmental impact studies, project management, logistics and other jobs in the facilities, transportation, environmental, and energy and power segments.

 

"Transportation is the company's largest end market, representing 28% of the business, followed by environmental at 25%, facilities work at 24%, and Management Support Services (MSS), which delivered 17% of its revenues in fiscal 2010.

 

"Energy and power is the company's smallest segment, representing about 6% of its total revenues, but the company does view it as a growth opportunity. It is particularly strong in hydroelectric projects.  

 

"The MSS business is 100% dedicated to working directly for the U.S. government, but government spending of all types -- either from federal state and local governments and foreign governments -- accounts for 70% of the company's revenue. The remainder comes from the private sector.

 

"AECOM has been under some pressure toward the end of the year, despite initially rallying following a strong fiscal Q4 earnings report in November. The culprit was some weak reports from fellow E&C firms and the Dubai debt debacle.

 

"However, AECOM isn't subject to the same type of energy sector cancellations that some other E&C companies experienced, and its exposure to Dubai is negligible.

 

"Impressively, AECOM is one of the few E&C firms to grow its backlog sequentially last quarter. Total backlog stood at a record $9.5 billion on September 30th, a 10% increase year over year and a 3% increase quarter over quarter.

 

"Meanwhile, AECOM is well positioned to be a beneficiary of increased government stimulus spending in 2011, as well as the possible passage of a substantial highway bill late next year.

 

"AECOM guided for fiscal year 2011 EPS to be in the range of $1.90 to $2.00. The midpoint of this range reflects 15% growth in earnings per share. We think the guidance is relatively conservative.

 

"In summary, we like AECOM's position in the marketplace, its consistent growth, and sound low-risk strategy. With a pristine balance sheet, trading at under 14x the midpoint of conservative guidance, and an over 15% expected 5-year growth rate, AECOM is undervalued and our top pick for 2011."

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: AeroVironment (AVAV)

By Gregg Early

 

Technology expert Gregg Early looks to AeroVironment (NDSQ: AVAV) as his top pick for the coming year.

 

The editor of The New Tech Investor -- and the soon-to-be-launched 2020 Portfolio -- explains, "Although the firm's miltary aerospace business should be strong, it is the firm's new 'clean technology' and energy e?ciency projects that should be the real growth kicker.

 

"AeroVironment started o? 2010 strong but it was hit in the spring by the global economic collapse and the irrational fears of investors -- both individual and institutional -- about what the future held in store for this unique firm.

 

"But 2011 should be the perfect climate for this company to continue is comeback and head to new highs.

 

"AeroVironment was founded by the father of human powered flight, Dr. Paul MacCready (1925-2007), the inventor of the human powered Gossamer Condor and Gossamer Albatross (which was flown across the English Channel and resides in the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum).

 

"MacCredy also developed the first solar powered aircraft, the Gossamer Penguin and the Solar Challenger. He also co-developed the GM Sunraycer, one of the first solar powered land vehicles.

 

"His revolutionary developments in aerospace design were put to good use in AeroVironment's unmanned air systems (UASs) division. The company's hand launched and micro UASs are deployed extensively in Iraq and Afghanistan with special forces units and well loved by the troops who rely on them.

 

"While general defense spending is on a downtrend, C4ISR (command, control, computing, communications, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) budgets are increasing briskly across all the armed services as well intelligence and homeland security sectors.

 

"This business has sustained AeroVironment in the past and will continue to generate more business in coming years. But it E?cient Energy division is the real growth kicker.

 

"The company pioneered electric vehicle (EV) charging stations and has a long and abiding relationship with many car manufacturers as well as government agencies.

 

"As EV filling stations begin to dot the US landscape--and that development is already growing briskly in the West -- AeroVironment will be a significant player.

 

"Also, because the stimulus plan had the unintended e?ect of holding up cleantech projects as everyone waited to see who would get government money, it made 2010 a tough year for cleantech.

 

"Now that the monies have been earmarked, projects will move ahead faster now that companies have better visibility on where the funding will be derived. AeroVironment is a buy up to 35."

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: BCE (BCE)

By Vivian Lewis

 

 

Given her concerns about overall market valuaton, global expert Vivian Lewis is selecting her top pick from among stocks she calls "dividend payers and fallen angels".

 

In her Global Investing newsletter, she explains, "I consider BCE (NYSE: BCE), with its 6% yield, a great buy." Here's her review of the Canada-based telecom company.

 

"I'm worried about the speculative coloration of the rise in stock prices globally since the bottom in March 2010. I do not think the markets will continue rising as they have since then, in a straight line to the upper right-hand corner of the page.

 

"I expect a serious correction because the global economy is still mired in di?culty. There will be more bad news taking share prices down in the coming year.

 

"To find stocks with ballast for the sell-o? I expect in 2011, I am focusing on dividend payers and fallen angels. Fallen angels have risen less sharply than companies without damaged reputations, and pay out more.

 

"A year after crash of BCE, the Canada telco supposed to have been taken private by Ontario Teachers Pension Plan and US partners, who pulled out, the former Bell Canada is a good buy.

 

"The deal collapsed in the financial crisis. BCE CEO George Cope valiantly then cut 2500 jobs; did a wireless deal with Telus and bought out the remaining half of Virgin Mobile Canada; bought electronics store chain The Source; and boosted BCE dividends.

 

"BCE stock has risen 30% this year in loonies (C$s) and nearly 50% in US dollars. (It trades as BCE both in Toronto and on the NYSE.) But it is still a third cheaper than the former deal price target. That reflects investors' bad memories. Most analysts rate it neutral despite their expecting it to rise to $29.50.

 

"Further hurting BCE was the decision on Dec. 11 by Canadian regulators to allow Globalive to o?er cellular phone service throughout Canada, reversing an earlier bar on the company part-owned by Orascom of Egypt.

 

"While the 2010 Xmas telephone market will not see many o?ers from Globalive, next year there will be cellphone price cuts. This could hurt BCE's gross margins, which are at an astonishing 74%.

 

"However, other telcos without BCE's land-line and multiple cellular options will be hurt more. I consider the stock a great buy yielding 6% with a probability the dividend will be raised."

 

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: Blue Coat (BCSI)

By Leo Fasciocco

 

 

"My pick for 2011 is Blue Coat Systems (NASDAQ: BCSI), a company that provides web security," says Leo Fasciocco, a leading technical analyst known for his focus on stocks that are breaking out of basing patterns.

 

In his The Ticker Tape Digest, he explains, "We consider the stock an excellent intermediate-term play because of its strong profit outlook. Blue Coat, based in Sunnyvale, Ca., provides software and services for networking, with annual sales of $444 million. 

 

"Its products enable its end user customers to secure their Internet gateways and remote computer systems by providing protection from malicious code, or malware and objectionable content.

 

""The company is benefiting from an expansion of its products. In 2008, BCSI acquired Packeteer, a provider of WAN tra?c prioritization technologies. It most recently came out with an expansion of its Webpulse cloud service for Arabic web content.

 

"Looking out to fiscal 2011 ending in April, the Street projects a 44% jump  in net to $1.30 cents a share from the 90 cents anticipated for fiscal 2011.

 

"The stock has been trending higher the past few months recovering from the bear market. The  long-term chart for BCSI shows the stock with a cyclical tendency. It is now in the up trend part of its cycle. We see that as favorable for bulls at this time with the stock now trending higher.

 

"In our view, BCSI is an outstanding stock poised to breakout. It is holding in its base and poised to show massive earnings gains.We are targeting BCSI for a move to 36 after a breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 24 after a breakout."

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: BMC Software (BMC)

By Dow Theory

 

 

 Dow Theory Forecasts is one of the most respected and venerable players in the financial newsletter community; the service has been published continuously for well over 5 decades.

 

Editor Richard Moroney looks to BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) as his top pick for 2011. He explains, "BMC develops products that run corporate data centers, which house critical computer systems.

 

"BMC's long-term contracts sustained stable profits during the downturn. Over the next 12 months, results should benefit as clients resume spending on technology. "Consensus estimates project per-share profits will advance 15% in fiscal 2011 ending March - and grow 14% annually over the next five years.

 

"Recent acquisitions have bolstered BMC's promising segment for automating datacenter activities. Fortune 500 companies comprise more than 85% of BMC's client list, and such companies are unlikely to abandon cost-cutting initiatives once the environment improves.

 

"Reflecting this optimism and better-than-expected results for the September quarter, BMC in October raised profit guidance for fiscal 2011. With a trailing price/earnings ratio of 15, BMC trades at a discount to its three-year average P/E of 22 and five-year average of 27.

 

"If the P/E returned to the three-year average and BMC matched consensus profit estimates, the stock would trade at $58 next year.

 

"While that target seems a stretch, BMC seems fully capable of reaching $45 to $50. BMC is a Focus List Buy and a Long-Term Buy."

 

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: Brazil Small Cap (BRF)

By Nicholas Vardy

 

 

"The global bull market is back in Brazil," says international investing expert Nicholas Vardy.

 

In The Global Bull Market Alert, he explains, "Global markets recovered in the beginning of November; at that time, we looked to one of the hottest markets on the planet, Brazil, through the Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (NYSE: BRF). The ETF remains our top pick for 2011. 

 

"Brazil, as its place on the cover of Economist magazine recently confirmed, was the flavor of the month in emerging markets. Brazil had recently won the right to host the Olympics in 2016, raising its profile much like the Beijing Olympics did for China. Investors were pouring in.

 

"Its currency, the real, gained 50% against the U.S. dollar since the prior December, with the economy firing on all cylinders, posting an 8%-10% growth in Q3. My forecast has been that, overall, Brazil’s economy will grow by 5% in 2011.

 

"In December, the Inter-American Development Bank approved a $3-billion conditional credit line with Brazilian small and mid-sized businesses on Thursday.

 

Around 75% of the new jobs created in Brazil this year were created by small and mid- sized businesses.

 

"With the market already up 76.9% in local currency terms at the time, betting on Brazil was clearly a momentum play. That's also why I recommended a small cap ETF, which had outperformed its large cap ETF counterpart this year.

 

"Looking ahead, Brazil's biggest enemy is likely to be its own hubris -- getting too cocky for its own good. But before it does, I'm betting the market has further to go. After all, it went up almost 6-fold in dollar terms during its last bull run starting in 2003.

 

"This is the reasoning behind my recommendation for Market Vectors Brazil Small- Cap ETF. For a potentially bigger upside, I recommended the April $45 call options. For full disclosure, this is a position that I hold on behalf of my clients at Global Guru Capital."

 

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: ChemTrade Logistics (CGIFF)

By Roger Conrad

 

 

Roger Conrad, editor of The Canadian Edge, is a leading specialist in the niche investment area of high-income Canada-based trusts.

 

For his top investment idea for the company year, he turns to chemical company, ChemTrade Logistics (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF). 

 

"ChemTrade Logistics is a major producer of specialty chemicals, particularly sulphuric acid. It's also a Canadian income trust yielding over 12% with most of its operations overseas. That adds up to a unique triple play for investors in 2011.

 

"First, is the high yield, paid monthly. Even with the market for specialty chemicals chronically weak in 2010, Chemtrade was able to generate cash flow to cover its distribution by a healthy margin.

 

":Second, cash flow is set to surge as demand from industry rebounds for sulphuric acid. Second half results already show improvement and that trend is set to continue into the new year.

 

"Third, Chemtrade management expects to pay the same level of distribution in 2011, when Canada's trust tax kicks in. If it succeeds, investors will receive a windfall capital gain, since a big cut is already priced in.

 

"At a recent conference call, CEO Mark Davis stated 'the e?ect of the new tax would not be significant' since 'Chemtrade receives a large portion of its earnings from non- Canadian sources.

 

"Accordingly, in 2011 we believe that the new SIFT tax will apply to less than one-third of the Fund's income, resulting in an e?ective tax rate of less than 10 percent.'  Buy ChemTrade up to $11."

 

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: Vodafone (VOD)

By Amy Calistri

 

"Even in these di?cult economic times, people are upgrading their cell phones," says Amy Calistri, who selects Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) as her top pick for 2011.

 

The editor of Stock of the Month, adds, "Smartphone sales have been robust throughout the recession, as people want to access the latest technologies and features.

 

"Every one of those latest generation cell phones taps into a wireless service provider. And as essential as we consider it here in the U.S., cell phone service means everything to emerging and developing countries where landline infrastructure barely exists. 

 

"Africa is actually the fastest growing wireless market in the world.  With little landline infrastructure and an average population that is still some distance from computer ownership, cell phones have become Africa's link to the world.

 

"So where can you find a company that has the loyalty of the stable U.S. wireless market but also has inroads into the fast-growing African subscriber base?

 

""Vodafone is the largest wireless communications company in the world, with operations in Europe, the U.S., the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. Its owns a 45% stake in the largest U.S. wireless communications operator, Verizon Wireless.

 

"Along with its stable Verizon U.S. subscriber base, VOD also owns an interest in the growing base of African subscribers. Vodafone has a 65% stake in South Africa's Vodacom. Vodacom currently has 41.6 million subscribers, but that is expected to grow. 

 

""I especially like dividend-paying stocks in challenging markets. After all, capital gains can ebb and flow, but cash in hand is yours to keep forever.

 

"Vodafone's dividend yield is approximately 6% at current prices. While other companies are throwing their dividends under the bus, VOD management seems committed to keep the income flowing.

 

"Vodafone has instituted a 'progressive' dividend policy that boosts the dividend based on rising free cash flows, even if earnings fall.

 

"And of course because the dividends are first determined in British pounds and then converted to U.S. dollars, a continuation of the U.S. dollar's declining value will boost the payout to U.S. investors."

 

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: Weatherford International (WFT)

By Elliott Gue

 

Energy sector expert Elliott Gue turns to Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT) as his top pick for the coming year. In his The Energy Strategist, he explains, "As with most oil services firms, Weatherford's North American business has been hit hard and the stock  now trades at a deeply discounted valuation.

 

"Weatherford is perhaps best known as an expert provider of services related to mature oilfields. Traditionally, Weatherford has had a strong presence in North America, which has been a proving ground for all sorts of technologies that squeeze oil from older fields. 

 

"An example is underbalanced drilling, a technique that prevents damage to mature fields. Weatherford's genius in recent years has been to take homegrown North American technologies and sell them internationally. 

 

"The firm has gradually lessened its exposure to North America and forged into international markets where profit margins are higher and profitability cycles less severe.

 

"It also wins points for expanding its business in Russia, a key market for both oil and natural gas production. Specifically, Weatherford purchased the oil services business of TNK-BP, BP's joint venture in Russia. 

 

"Weatherford’s stock has significantly underperformed the rest of the oil services industry since October, primarily due to concerns about Weatherford's Chicontepec contract in Mexico. 

 

"Chicontepec is a heavy oilfield that is the centerpiece of Petroleos Mexicanos’ (PEMEX) strategy to stabilize and grow oil production.

 

"The problem PEMEX faces is that production from its largest field, the o?shore Cantarell oilfield, has fallen o? rapidly in recent years to the point that Mexico's oil exports have tumbled. 

 

"Accordingly, PEMEX has decided to reexamine its development plans for Chicontepec and has cut investment in the field 22%. Because Weatherford is a big player in Chicontepec, its stock has fallen.

 

"Although PEMEX’s recent announcements caught the market by surprise and are bad news for companies with significant exposure to Mexico, the sello? that’s hit Weatherford's shares is overdone.

 

"Mexican oil production is falling fast; the country will have no choice but to bump up spending on Chicontepec. 

 

"Finally, Weatherford is trading at less than 17 times 2011 earnings estimates. This compares favorably to Schlumberger’s stock, which trades at 22.5 times 2011 earnings estimates. Shares of Halliburton and Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI) trade at 21 times 2011 earnings. 

 

"Weatherford's deeply discounted valuation more than prices in all the bad news surrounding Mexico and Chicontepec. Take advantage of the recent decline to buy Weatherford International under 26."

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: SmartHeat (HEAT)

By Brendan Coey

 

Brendan Co?ey is the editor of The Cabot Green Investor, a newsletter focused on companies involved in varous aspects of the broad environmental technologies sector.

 

For his top pick for 2011 Here, he looks to SmartHeat (NASDAQ: HEAT), a maker of plate-heat exchange systems and heat meters.

 

"Like in seemingly every other business, China promises to be a massive market for the products SmartHeat provides: plate-heat exchange systems and heat meters.

 

"These are relatively simple products that are only just starting to be required in China. Using SmartHeat PHE systems can slash coal usage by up to two-thirds in wildly ine?cient Chinese buildings, oil refineries and chemical factories, where legacy shell and tube technology dominates.

 

"The market for PHEs in China will rise 20% to $3.2 billion in 2011, while the submarket for smaller, customized PHE units in which SmartHeat has a highly profitable specialty should grow triple-digits to nearly $1 billion.

 

"Plenty of growth should come in future years too: China generates 70% of its electricity from coal, and the government is keen to be more energy e?cient to ween itself from imported oil and improve its notorious urban air quality.

 

"There are plenty of competitors in PHEs, but SmartHeat has two advantages: It is Chinese and has production costs around 15% cheaper than imports at comparable quality.

 

"Sales through the first three quarters of fiscal 2010 were up 92% to $56.5 million, while net income surged 96% to 51 cents a share over the same period. Both should nearly double again in 2011.

 

"Management are industry veterans who are confident enough in the company they signed an agreement not to sell any of their shares until January 2012.

 

"The stock only began trading on the Nasdaq Global Market in March so the company’s story is still unheard by many investors. That will change quickly."

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: SPDR Small Cap Emerging (EWX)

By Ron Rowland

 

 

For his top fund selection for 2011, fund specialist Ron Rowland turns to the SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Small Cap (NYSE: EWX).

 

In his All Star Investor, he suggests, "This is the easiest way to gain access to the small cap stocks of all the emerging markets, as it includes stocks from more than 20 countries countries.

 

"SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Small Cap excludes stocks with a market caps exceeding $2 billion (US) -- the ones that dominate traditional cap-weighted emerging market ETFs.  

 

"Historically, the growth of emerging market economies has been predominately export driven -- the large cap companies that produce and export products to the U.S., Europe, Japan, and other consuming nations.

 

"There are also a few large cap companies (banks, utilities, and construction) within each emerging market nation that help provide the infrastructure needed.

 

"The major change now underway is the growth of the middle class within each of these countries. The people of the emerging market nations are becoming more prosperous and are becoming significant consumers themselves.

 

"In addition to economic growth via exports, many of these nations are now experiencing rapid internal growth. The large cap and export oriented companies will still do well, but the real opportunity is in the small cap segment of emerging markets.

 

"These small cap companies are undervalued compared to their large cap brethren and are better positioned to benefit from the internal growth of each nation."

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: Standard Chartered (SCBFF)

By Yiannis Mostrous

 

Yiannis Mostrous is a leading expert on Asian Stocks. For his top pick last year, advisor choseStandard Chartered (London: STAN, OTC: SCBFF) as  his top pick.

 

 The stock has risen 110% since his original recommend -- and remains  his top pick for 2011 as well. Here's the latest from his The Silk Road Investor.

 

"Standard Charter is an international bank focused on consumer and corporate banking and treasury activities.

 

"Though based in London, the bank gives exposure to emerging markets in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Asia makes up 59% of the firm’s profits with Hong King as its biggest single concentration of customers.

 

"The economies in Asia are rebounding faster than those in the west, increasing competitor activity amongst international and local banks.

 

"The banks strategy is to continue to develop its consumer banking franchises while maximizing profitability in its historically strong wholesale operations.

 

"For the January-November period, the firm reached record income and pretax profit highs, driven by growth in the corporate banking business.

 

"Standard Chartered has a relatively low loan-to-deposit ratio of 75%, giving the bank the luxury of relying less on borrowed funds and more on its increasingly strong, less costly deposits for expansion.

 

"Valuations are attractive; share price per trailing earnings is 14.3, trading at 1.5 times tangible book value. The firm maintains a strong balance sheet and a healthy liquidity position."

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: Peabody Energy (BTU)

By Hannah Choe

 

 

"Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), the world’s largest coal producer, is my  top pick for the coming year," says Hannah Choe.

 

 The contributing analyst with Personal Finance explains, "Demand for coal, particularly from the Pacific Rim, China and India, is rebounding as the global economy recovers.

 

"The company reported better-than-expected third quarter earnings, primarily because of a lower costs associated with US operations, increased volumes of metallurgical coal, and strong trading results.

 

"Net income and revenue were down 71% and 12%, respectively, hurt mainly by lower US demand. But despite a di?cult economic environment, Peabody expanded US margins and shipped record volumes of coal in the third quarter.

 

"Although demand from Japan and South Korea hasn’t bounced back as strongly as it has in the early stages of prior recoveries, China has more than made up for this shortfall, emerging as a top coal importer.

 

"In the first nine months of 2010, Chinese imports of thermal and coking coal rose 167% and 400%, respectively. And India will rely heavily on coal imports over the next five to six years to feed its rising domestic consumption of electricity.

 

"Peabody CEO Greg Boyce anticipates that China will grow by 8% and India will grow by 6% in 2010, with even more impressive rates in 2011.

 

"As a result, management projects markets for metallurgical and thermal coal to have a 7.5% compound annual growth rate in the next five-plus years as demand for steel and coal-fueled electricity rise.

 

"As of mid-October, Peabody committed 3.3 million tons of coal for China deliveries in 2010, more than 1.7 million tons coming from its Australian operations. This demand from Asia should push Australia’s coal sales to 21 million to 23 million tons this year.

 

"Peabody’s US sales declined, in part due to recession pressures; cooler weather and rising use of natural gas also crimped results. This combination of trends has led

 

management to adjust 2011 product projects 15 million tons below 2008 levels.

 

"Although US numbers are weak, third quarter sales from Peabody’s Australia operations climbed 30 percent from the second quarter, driven by surging demand in China and India.

 

"The Australia unit projects sales of growth of 15% for 2011 over 2010 levels;Peabody actually plans to double exports from Australia over the next five years.

 

"As part of its shift in focus to Asia, Peabody established a trading hub in Singapore and a new business center in Indonesia during the third quarter. Based on emerging Asia’s rapid turnaround, Peabody forecasts higher prices for thermal and coking coal in 2011.

 

"Green energy is gaining popularity but coal remains king-half of the electricity generated in the US comes from it, and emerging markets want it, too. Global coal use

is still expected to grow by 55% by 2025, and Peabody Energy is well positioned to profit."

 

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: PepsiCo (PEP)

By Jim Stack

 

 

"PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), my top pick for 2011, remains underrated by the  market," says Jim Stack. 

 

The money manager and editor of InvesTech Market Analyst suggests,  "All too often,  it’s viewed as a stodgy soft drink company, fully reliant on its namesake soda line. That's a misconception." Here, the sets the record straight.

 

"In reality, PepsiCo owns some of the most sought after brands in the world, including Gatorade, Tropicana, Frito-Lay, and Doritos.  It does business in more than 200 countries worldwide, including key emerging market economies like China and India.

 

"Perhaps most important of all, it’s a growth company with analysts expecting long-term future earnings growth of 10-12% per year.

 

"In recent months, PepsiCo has taken another major step forward with the pending acquisition of its two primary bottlers – Pepsi Bottling Group and PepsiAmericas. 

 

"The acquisition provides the potential to eliminate an estimated $500 million to $1 billion in redundant costs.  If those cost savings are transferred directly to the bottom line, shareholders could see a significant increase in net income of 10% to 20%. 

 

"Of perhaps even greater benefit, the purchase brings 80% of North American beverage distribution 'in-house.' This move will bring management one step closer to its final customers – injecting a level of flexibility into operations not often seen with a company of PepsiCo’s size. 

 

"The acquisition further ties together the Pepsi story – a well run company with market leading growth positions and an attractive valuation. 

 

"The executive suite neatly combines the beverage 'megabrands' such as Pepsi, Gatorade, Tropicana, and Mountain Dew with the world’s largest snack food company, Frito-Lay. 

 

"Management then leverages these brands into international growth markets such as Latin America and Asia where sales volume increased more than 20% in 2008, and despite the most challenging world economy in decades, has seen high single-digit growth so far in 2010.

 

" On top of all this, Pepsi is currently trading at valuation levels not seen in 15 years.  And although it’s a growth company, Pepsi still o?ers the dividend yield (3.0%) of a stalwart. 

 

"Bottom line, Pepsi remains underrated by the market in general, and the bottler acquisition only enhances the company’s outlook."

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: Jinpan Int'l (JST)

By Tracey Ryniec

 

 

"Jinpan International Limited (NYSE: JST), a manufacturer of transformers, is the top pick for 2011 from Tracey Ryniec.

 

The value stock strategist for Zacks.com explains, "The company is positioned to benefit from the trillions of dollars of government stimulus around the world, as much of it is going into infrastructure.

 

"China has been an investing hotspot for several years. Even the great recession of 2008 and 2010 did little to slow down investor interest as the Chinese government injected massive stimulus into its economy which has propelled growth.

 

"In 2010, the Shanghai Composite Index surged over 70%, far outperforming the stock markets of the United States and most of Europe.

 

"Questions abound about whether China is too hot to handle and is a bubble waiting to burst. But I believe investors should look at each company individually, whether it is in China or not.

 

"While macroeconomic and political issues shouldn't be ignored, some companies will be better suited to ride out any rough patches. One of those companies is Jinpan International, one of only two UL certified cast resin transformer manufacturers in the world.

 

"While it has its headquarters and manufacturing facilities in China and generates a majority of its business in China, Jinpan is actually an American company held by a British Virgin Islands holding company. It is also not a newbie on the Chinese stage. Jinpan has been in business since 1993.

 

"The company manufactures medium voltage transformers (10-25 kV.) That doesn't sound too glamorous, but the transformers are used in large infrastructure projects like factories and real estate developments as well as in municipal transportation projects like airports and subway systems.

 

"Jinpan is positioned to benefit from the trillions of dollars of government stimulus around the world, as much of it is going into infrastructure. International sales have been growing. In the third quarter, sales outside of China rose 40% to $8.1 million and accounted for 18.5% of net sales, up from 13% a year ago.  

 

"International customers were ordering cast resin transformers for wind power applications, along with the more traditional orders for use in airports, subways, and data centers.

 

"Orders for wind applications were 18% of net sales in the third quarter. The company's recently opened Shanghai manufacturing facility now handles the growing wind energy products business.  

 

"In October 2010, Jinpan expanded in the U.S. opening a New Jersey o?ce and warehouse. Clearly, international sales are key to Jinpan's growth in 2011 and beyond.  

 

"Despite a big jump in the stock in 2010 (what didn't rally in 2010?), Jinpan has attractive valuations. The company is trading at about 13 times forward earnings. It has a low PEG ratio of just 0.64. Analysts polled by Zacks project earnings growth of 42% in 2010 and, so far, just 3.19% in 2011.

 

"But the company has had two big earnings surprises in the second and third quarters of 2010 so there is reason to think that growth will be much hotter than current projections. Analysts are bullish on the long term outlook, expecting earnings growth to average 20% over the next 5 years.

 

"Jinpan has an excellent 1-year return on equity of 24.75%. The company also shows its support to shareholders by paying a dividend, unusual for a Chinese-based company, which is yielding about 0.50%."

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: Ford Motor (F)

By Mark Skousen

 

 

"Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is in the driver’s seat when it comes to innovation, cutting costs, and building global demand," says Mark Skousen.

 

In his Forecasts & Strategies, which this month is celebrating its 30th anniversary, he cautions, "I’ve decided to recommend Ford as the best turnaround speculation for 2011. Bear in mind that this is highly speculative, and not recommended for conservative investors.

 

"Ford shocked Wall Street and Washington two months ago in reporting its first positive cash-flow quarter in more than two years. Of course, it played some accounting games to do it, but the overall direction is up. 

 

"Ford made its first billion by successfully increasing domestic sales for the first time in nearly five years, and boosting market share against its chief rivals, Government Motors (GM) and Crying Chrysler. 

 

"Meanwhile, the #2 auto maker predicted it would turn solidly profitable by 2011 as a result of its cost cutting measures and renegotiations with the unions. 

 

"Ford is the only major US auto maker not begging for a government bailout last year. This isn’t the first time Ford has broken away from the government trough.  In the early 1980s, Ford executives opposed the call for import quotas on Japanese cars and took on their competitors by raising quality standards. 

 

"I’ve been a long-time buyer of Ford cars, including two Mustangs, an Explorer truck, and a Lincoln Town Car.  I have enjoyed relatively maintenance free service for years. 

 

"Maybe my experience is exceptional, but most car rating services, such as Consumer Reports, rank Ford ahead of its domestic competitors. The company is innovative. The hot-selling Ford Taurus just won Kelly Blue Book’s '2011 Best Redesigned Vehicle.'

 

"Its engineers have developed the first robot (named RUTH) to scientifically test the feel and appearance of switches and surfaces in their automobiles. And Ford's Quick Lane Tire and Auto Centers are expanding rapidly across the country. 

 

"Ford isn’t out of the woods yet. It still carries an incredible (gulp) $103 billion in debt (it blundered by borrowing billions to buy back its stock at much higher prices) and has been forced to restructure its debt again. Unions are refusing to cut back any further their generous medical and pension benefits. 

 

"CEO Alan R. Mulally, a turnaround executive from Boeing, deserves high marks for Ford’s latest success.  If anyone can make an elephant dance, he can. 

 

"The stock price has already tripled in price in 2010, but it is still way below its previous high of $40 a share in the late 1990s, so it has lots of room to grow. It’s selling at 20 times next year’s earnings, and has over $32 billion in cash. 

 

"We're adding Ford Motor Co. to our growth stock portfolio, with the caveats that the stock does not pay a dividend and is considered high risk. As such, it may not be for everybody."

 

 

Top American Stocks For 2011: FPL (FPL)

By Vita Nelson

 

 

Vita Nelson is well-known as a leading expert on dividend reinvestment plans.

 

With the caveat that she always recommends portfolio diversification, the editor of The MoneyPaper looks to utility stock FPL (NYSE: FPL) as a top selection for 2011.

 

"We make a point of recommending that people don't pin their hopes on just one stock (which might underachieve in the short-run).

 

"Nevertheless, as a top pick for the comin year, I like FPL Group is the parent of Florida Power & Light, a utility that engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity to 4.5 million customers in a 27,650 square mile area of eastern and southern Florida.

 

"Its NextEra Energy Resources subsidiary is a non-regulated power generator that produces electricity from nuclear, natural gas, solar, and wind generation.

 

"It owns 48 wind farms in 15 states producing 4,100 megawatts and could double that output within the next four years.

 

"The company is expected to earn about $4.15 per share this year and $4.57 in 2011, compared with $3.84 in 2008.

 

"The dividend has been increased for 15 consecutive years and the annual payout now stands at $1.90 per share, for a yield of about 3.4%."

 

 

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